As co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel — as well as Intel’s former chief executive and chairman — Gordon Moore has monitored the evolution of the computer-chip industry for more than half a century.
He’s also pretty savvy at gauging technology trends, judging from the world renown he has earned from his so-called Moore’s Law. When first formulated in 1965, it predicted that the number of transistors built into each computer chip would double every year, though Moore later revised that to every two years.
The Mercury News was eager to know Moore’s thoughts about how the business he helped create is doing today. What follows is an edited transcript of a recent phone interview.
Q This seems like one of the worst periods in history for the chip industry. How do you view the economic state of affairs now and how worried does it make you?
A Clearly it’s a mess. … The tough shape the auto industry is in I think is terrible. I’d hate to see those three companies go out of business. This certainly has the makings of the worst recession I can remember.
Q What were the toughest economic periods you went through when you were leading Intel?
A One was in 1974, I think, which was the oil crisis. During that one, Intel shrank by about a third of its work force and shut several plants. There also was one in the ’85 time period. Our industry just got clobbered. Intel actually lost money in ’86, as I recall. That was something that was almost unique to the semiconductor industry. That was really peculiar, it was so industry-specific.
Q When would you expect the economy to turn around?
A I don’t have any crystal ball on that. Its seems like it’s still going down. It’s probably going to be 2010, more or less. I don’t think we’re falling off the edge of the Earth. But it’s been a terrible shock to the whole system.
Q Do you envision some semiconductor companies disappearing or combining?
A Very likely. It’s hard to know what’s going to happen. I think there are a lot of small chip companies that probably will disappear.
Q Would you expect Intel to be one of the survivors when the economy finally improves?
A I sure think so. Intel has a phenomenal product line right now. They had one period of time where they kind of flubbed their execution of new products. That’s what got Advanced Micro Devices really established. But, boy, they’ve come back.
Q How has Silicon Valley changed in recent years?
A When we started, venture capital — I go back to the Fairchild days — venture capital didn’t really exist. The net result, there weren’t many startups. There was Hewlett-Packard and Varian, but not much else around. And then it went through a period when venture capital was forming and several companies were set up. Then venture capital kind of got professionalized, you know, Stanford MBAs coming out and wanting to be venture capitalists. That changed things quite dramatically, and there was a lot more money available.
Q What has been the impact of that?
A Startup companies are much more efficient than new companies at exploiting new technology. Big companies have a tough time doing anything really different. That’s one thing the venture community has really fostered. It’s a good way to get technology to the marketplace.
Q What do you think of the pace of computer-chip development in recent years?
A I’m surprised. Taking Intel as an example, we used to think a generation every three years in the technology was very rapid progress. Well, they’ve cut that down to every two years. They’ve actually accelerated the rate of technology in spite of the fact that it’s more expensive and more complicated.
Q Moore’s Law has proven remarkably prescient. But are some companies getting bogged down trying to pursue ever-smaller chip designs?
A What they’ve discovered is it’s gotten increasingly expensive. It’s very hard to stay competitive on the technology. Few of us now work on the real leading edges. A few worldwide. You know, Intel, IBM and Samsung.
Q You have noted that computer-chip components are getting down to atomic proportions where it’s tough to shrink them much more. Are we close to the point where it no longer will be possible to double the number of transistors on a chip every two years?
A The problems look very severe. The fact that materials are made of atoms is a tough thing to get around. But the thing is, they’ve always looked like they were severe.
Contact Steve Johnson at sjohnson@mercurynews.com or (408) 920-5043.
gordon moore
Date of birth: Jan. 3, 1929
Birthplace: San Francisco
Residence: Woodside, but spends most of his time on the big island of Hawaii
Previous employment: Co-founder and former chief executive and chairman of Intel. Before that, he co-founded Fairchild Semiconductor.
Education: Bachelor”s degree from University of California-Berkeley; doctorate in chemistry and physics from California Institute of Technology
Family: Wife, Betty; sons Kenneth and Steven
FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT GORDON MOORE
1.
He estimates he was worth $26 billion around 2000. But because he has given much of his money away and the price of his Intel stock has plummeted, he now says he”s worth $2 billion to $3 billion.
2.
He has traveled the world to fish for just about anything that swims, but predominantly catches trout.
3.
He keeps his cell phone off most of the time because
“I just don”t want to be interrupted.”
4.
In 1990, he was given the National Medal of Technology and in 2002, the Medal of Freedom, the nation”s highest civilian honor. Both are awarded by the president of the United States.
5.
A Republican, he voted for John McCain in November.
