After months of hints and trial balloons, one of Silicon Valley’s most recognizable and controversial figures has finally decided to take the plunge into politics, and California could be in for a roller-coaster ride of a political race over the next year.
Republican Carly Fiorina, the dynamic former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, is expected to launch her bid for the U.S. Senate this week, possibly at an appearance today in Orange County. Assuming she wins the primary, political analysts say she could give three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer the run of her life.
A Fiorina-Boxer race would offer no shortage of rich story lines — corporate heavyweight vs. Washington insider, a woman recovering from breast cancer vs. one known for women’s issues, an aggressive business executive vs. a combative politician.
Fiorina would first have to face off against conservative state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the June primary. A Field Poll last month had her running even with DeVore, who is popular with the Republican base, but Fiorina’s likely fundraising advantage makes her a heavy favorite to advance to the general election, political analysts say.
Either GOP candidate is likely to face an uphill battle against Boxer, who led Fiorina and DeVore by double digits in the same Field Poll. But as Fiorina mounts a full-scale campaign, Boxer could find that advantage slipping.
The two are accomplished women with contrasting backgrounds, strong personalities and millions of dollars to make their best case to voters. Here’s a look at some of the potential subplots.
Insider vs. ex-CEO
A Boxer-Fiorina matchup could serve as a referendum on what Californians like less: Democrat-dominated Washington or corporate America.
An unapologetic liberal, Boxer will be directly tied to the policies of President Barack Obama and the Democrat-controlled Congress. That could cut both ways, depending on the issue and the state of the economy next fall.
If Congress passes a popular health care reform bill and the economy is on the rebound, Fiorina will have a harder time arguing that Boxer should be tossed from office. But if unemployment remains high and Boxer is seen as the embodiment of costly government programs that offer dubious returns, her re-election prospects could suffer.
Fiorina’s background presents its own opportunities and challenges. In one recent appearance, she signaled that she will portray herself as the Washington outsider who would bring business world accountability to an institution sorely in need of it.
But Fiorina’s contentious six-year reign at the helm of Hewlett-Packard — which included the controversial merger with Compaq, thousands of layoffs, and a severance package reportedly worth $21 million — could also remind voters of what they dislike about the business community.
“There’s a very strong populist anti-establishment mood in this country that’s directed against both big government and big business,” said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California. “This campaign ought to be a very helpful test in deciding which strain of animosity is greater.”
Race between women
Boxer has a history of running against conservative men who appeal to the GOP base but less so to moderate Republicans and independents. Her first Senate campaign in 1992 was fueled by female outrage over the all-male Senate Judiciary Committee’s treatment of Anita Hill, who accused Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment, and her opponent in that race was hurt by a last-minute revelation that he had visited a strip club.
Running against a woman — one who underwent treatment for breast cancer this year, as Fiorina did — would present a new test for Boxer and her no-holds-barred campaign style.
That’s not to say Boxer wouldn’t challenge Fiorina on issues such as abortion, which the senator has used to great effect against past GOP opponents. Fiorina has described herself as “personally pro-life,” a statement that may help her prospects with primary voters but be difficult to defend in a general election.
The likability factor
Fairly or not, Boxer and Fiorina have both been characterized as polarizing figures. In a body known for its formal decorum, Boxer has stood out with a scrappy — some say abrasive — political style. Although her defenders say the senator has a warm, grandmotherly side that’s often overlooked, the reality is that her poll numbers rarely have topped 50 percent since she joined the Senate 17 years ago.
Fiorina’s outsized persona and aggressive management moves at HP likewise have drawn admirers and critics. She carries a commanding stage presence, holding forth in public appearances and media interviews in a manner that suggests a keen analytical mind.
But as HP’s CEO she clashed repeatedly with the company’s board and antagonized many employees — problems that contributed to her firing in 2005, and that raise questions about her political skills.
Whatever Fiorina’s faults, political analysts say she would be Boxer’s most formidable opponent since she was elected to the Senate.
“Clearly Barbara Boxer is a very energetic and aggressive campaigner, but she hasn’t had to face anyone who matches her intensity on the stump,” said Republican strategist Adam Mendelsohn. “Having someone who matches her in that arena could prove to be a lot more challenging.”
Contact Mike Zapler at 202-662-8921.
