And the best picture Oscar goes to “… “District 9.”
We need a shocker like that Sunday during the 82nd annual Academy Awards.
Truth is, a major upset of that magnitude won’t happen. Even with 10 movies duking it out in the top spot, this year’s race is dubiously notable because key contests, especially in the acting categories, seem like done deals.
But that sly Oscar can be unpredictable now and then (remember Tilda Swinton’s win for “Michael Clayton”?). What fun it is when Oscar goes a little wacko. With that in mind, I hope my picks for what should and what will win wind up proving to be more wrong than right. At least then, we’ll be watching a better show and have something interesting to talk about Monday morning.
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “Up,” “Up in the Air.”
Let’s dispense with the contenders that stand no chance of winning — “District 9” (topical sci-fi that’s too violent and allegorical for voters); “An Education” (a commendable coming-of-age drama that isn’t as spectacular as everyone has said); “Precious” (a searing drama that’s too gritty for voters); “Blind Side” (an inspirational but traditional crowd-pleaser); “Up” (a lovely Pixar treat that loses some mojo halfway through); and “A Serious Man” (one of the Coens’ most complex works that will flummox Oscar voters).
Two other nominees have party-crasher potential. “Basterds,” most notably its taut opening sequence, is bold, brassy moviemaking, but Oscar will ignore it because that loudmouthed Tarantino made it. “Up in the Air,” which tapped presciently into corporate angst, could prevail, but it’s fallen well off everyone’s radar. So it comes down to the cinematic marvel “Avatar” vs. the intense war drama “The Hurt Locker.”
WHAT WILL WIN: “The Hurt Locker.” Hollywood simply won’t bestow its top honor on a film that features stop-motion characters that hog the screen away from flesh-and-blood actors. Voters, many of whom are actors, are too vain to go for that.
WHAT SHOULD WIN: “The Hurt Locker.” Yes, “Avatar” lacks a perfect script, but it exuberantly brought magic back to filmmaking, more so than any other film of the past decade. “Locker,” on the other hand, is a stunning piece of filmmaking, period. It delves into modern warfare without any of the heavy-handed polemics that have marred past flicks. And unlike “Avatar,” “Hurt” represents what a true best picture is — from the acting to the script to the editing to the directing. That’s why it should win over “Avatar.”
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”; James Cameron, “Avatar”; Lee Daniels, “Precious”; Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”; Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds.”
This is the battle between the exes — Bigelow and Cameron — plain and simple. Daniels drew out amazing performances from his eclectic “Precious” cast, but that film is too hard for Oscar voters. Reitman’s “Up in the Air” was ballyhooed as the one to beat, but it’s nicely, not powerfully, directed. In another year, Tarantino would be giving an Oscar acceptance speech, but “Basterds” has been unfairly dismissed as pulp-fiction fare. Cameron created a classic wonderland with Pandora, while Bigelow embedded audiences at the battlefield.
WHO WILL WIN: Bigelow. Please, Hollywood, spare us another “King of the World” speech. Or any of that Na’avi speak.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Bigelow. “Hurt Locker” is flawlessly directed.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”; George Clooney, “Up in the Air”; Colin Firth, “A Single Man”; Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”; Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker.”
Except for British Academy of Film and Television Arts laurel, nearly every major award has gone to Bridges. As a drunken, has-been country singer, the versatile actor physically and emotionally inhabited his Oscar-jackpot role. The terrific Clooney will be skipped over since he is — quote — playing himself — unquote — whatever that means.
In the overlooked “A Single Man,” Firth gracefully became the embodiment of grief as a depressed gay professor. It was a layered performance that Hollywood will shun because it’s subtle, not showy. Always an awards magnet, Freeman painted a convincing portrait of Nelson Mandela, but it’s hardly a blow-your-socks-off turn. Renner, on the other hand, was dynamite as a nervy war junkie/bomb detonator who isn’t immune to the battlefield’s emotional casualties.
WHO WILL WIN: Bridges. He sings, he drinks to excess, he even flashes us a pot belly. Oscar loooovvvess that seeming candor. Plus, Bridges has never won, a travesty considering how consistently excellent he’s been.
WHO SHOULD WIN: If you’re judging it based on performances alone, Renner should be at that podium Sunday. His is a raw, unnerving performance, one that switches from macho bravado to palpable desperation with the lightning flash of an explosion.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”; Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”; Carey Mulligan, “An Education”; Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”; Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia.”
Playing Leo Tolstoy’s melodramatic wife, Mirren made great hay out of playing a temperamental, often hysterical character — but few viewers hitched a ride on “Station.” The waif-ish Mulligan lit up the screen as a precocious teen seduced by an older man with questionable motives, but hers wasn’t a meaty role like the others here.
Sidibe was marvelous in “Precious” with her beaten-down body language and mumbled speech, but she’s fighting the odds as a freshman. Bullock stunned everyone at how wonderful she was playing a stubborn, plucky mom who prefers to think outside the box. And then there’s Streep, who cooked up the most deliciously buoyant and effervescent performance of the year as Julia Child.
WHO WILL WIN: Bullock. Everyone’s sweetheart wields some impressive acting chops.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Streep. Doesn’t matter that she’s the most decorated in this bunch, it’s the best performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, “Invictus”; Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”; Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”; Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”; Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds.”
Silly Oscar. Two actors simply don’t belong here. Damon’s contribution to “Invictus” is insignificant; he was good, but this nomination is a concession to his outstanding work in the merely adequate “The Informant!” Plummer is on equal footing with Mirren — an impressive feat, given how wonderful she is — in “Station.” But his earthy and robust performance as Tolstoy is hardly a supporting role. I’m ecstatic to see Harrelson here; as a tightly coiled and repressed deliverer of bad news to war dead’s next of kin, he was a revelation in one of the year’s best films (add it to your Netflix queue immediately!).
Tucci delivered two award-worthy performances in ’09 — as Julia Child’s affectionate hubby in “Julie & Julia” and as a child killer in Peter Jackson’s off-kilter adaptation of “Lovely Bones.” (His sweaty performance was the best thing about “Bones.”) But is there any competition here? Those who saw Waltz as a polished and vainglorious SS officer in “Basterds” knows 2010 is his year.
WHO WILL WIN: Waltz.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Waltz.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, “Nine”; Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”; Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”; Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”; Mo’Nique, “Precious.”
Like best supporting actor, this should be a slam-dunk. Cruz gave us something to drool at in “Nine,” but it’s a nothing part. Gyllenhaal, a bright star of an actress, got caught in an unbelievable romance in the overrated “Crazy Heart.” After toiling away in indie flicks, Farmiga finally landed a complicated role she aced. Her co-star, Kendrick, brought humor, energy and pathos to “Up in the Air,” but this isn’t her year. Then there’s Mo’Nique, the comedian playing a horrifyingly manipulative Mommy Dearest, who abuses her obese daughter. Her confessional monologue near the film’s end fires off buckshots of pain, anger and desperation that punch you over and over in the gut.
WHO WILL WIN: Mo’Nique.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Mo’Nique — for the best performance in all the acting categories.
