California Republicans woke up Wednesday to the possibility that their dwindling power in the Golden State could drop to levels not seen in 71 years.
Democrats were on the cusp of claiming a clean sweep in Sacramento by locking up every statewide office, including Gavin Newsom’s nearly 20-point victory in the governor’s race, and regaining a super-majority in the Legislature. Republicans didn’t even have a candidate in the other race at the top of the ticket that sent Sen. Dianne Feinstein back to Washington.
And while Democrats didn’t need California to clinch control of the House of Representatives from Republicans, two vulnerable GOP House seats in the state flipped to Democrats by Wednesday afternoon, with four more still locked in races that were still too close to call.
Former nonprofit executive Katie Hill, 31, unseated Rep. Steve Knight in a district in the hills and desert towns of northern Los Angeles County, becoming California’s first openly bisexual member of Congress. And environmental lawyer Mike Levin defeated Board of Equalization Member Diane Harkey in the district held by retiring GOP Rep. Darryl Issa, which includes Dana Point and San Clemente.
Heading into Tuesday’s election, Republicans held 14 of California’s 53 seats in the House. If Democrats pull out wins in three more of the remaining contested GOP seats, they would whittle the Republican caucus down to single digits for the first time since 1947 — back when the state had only 23 seats.
“There are now fewer Republicans in the California House delegation than there are players on the roster of the Golden State Warriors,” said Dan Schnur, a professor at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Communications and UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and a former GOP consultant. The Warriors have 14 players.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrat Harley Rouda, a businessman and former Republican, was narrowly leading GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a nearly 30-year incumbent. Rouda was up 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent with all precincts counted in the coastal Orange County district that includes Huntington Beach and Laguna Beach.
Republican incumbents Mimi Walters in the 45th district and Jeff Denham in the 10th were slightly ahead of their Democrat challengers with all precincts counted. Walters led law professor Katie Porter 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent in her highly educated Irvine district, while Denham led venture capital investor Josh Harder 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent in his Modesto-area seat.
And the GOP’s Young Kim, a former State Assembly member, was leading Democrat Gil Cisneros, a veteran and lottery winner, 51.3 percent to 48.7 percent with all precincts counted for the seat of retiring Republican Ed Royce in the 39th District north of Anaheim and southeast of Los Angeles. Kim would become the first Korean-American woman elected to Congress if she maintains her lead.
It can take weeks for final results to settle close races, particularly in California, which allows voters to mail their ballots or submit conditional or provisional ballots on election day. Local election officials have a month to verify and tally all the ballots.
California Republicans had banked on a campaign to repeal a gas tax increase to give the GOP a boost in its contested House races. But the gas tax repeal, Proposition 6, lost decisively statewide, with 44.6 percent in favor and 55.4 percent opposed, even as it found support in several Southern California counties.
Democrats were also poised Wednesday to win back their supermajority in the state Senate, allowing them to pass tax increases and other extraordinary measures without Republican votes. The party had lost its two-thirds dominance in the chamber after the successful June recall of Democratic State Sen. Josh Newman, who was replaced by Republican Ling Ling Chang in Orange County.
In the battle for the Senate seat of a termed-out Republican in the Merced to Salinas area, Democratic Assemblywoman Anna Caballero was leading Republican Rob Poythress 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent Wednesday with all precincts reporting. Assembly Democrats maintained the supermajority they currently hold.
California’s GOP has been on the ropes since former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner — the last Republicans elected statewide — left office in 2011.
Republicans this year fell to third-party status in voter registration behind voters claiming no political party, with fewer than one in four California voters now registered Republican. Democrats account for 43.5 percent of registered voters and those claiming no party 27.5 percent.
“They say that nothing is forever, but this certainly is for the foreseeable future,” said Jack Citrin, political science professor at UC Berkeley.
As a sign of the GOP brand’s fading luster in California, Poizner ran as an independent this year for his former office of Insurance Commissioner. He was trailing Democrat Ricardo Lara, a state lawmaker, 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent with all precincts counted early Wednesday.
Schnur said the GOP’s focus on national politics, a formula that works in the more rural and conservative eastern parts of California, has not delivered viable candidates with statewide appeal. And he noted that Republicans in other Democrat-dominated states have figured out ways to get candidates elected — like Governor Charlie Baker of deep-blue Massachusetts.
The last Republican governor candidate who already had elected experience on their resume was former Attorney General Dan Lungren, who lost to Gray Davis 20 years ago. The GOP’s offering in Tuesday’s governor race, John Cox, is a businessman who lost handily to Newsom, the lieutenant governor and former San Francisco mayor.
Republicans in California “need to find good candidates,” Citrin said. And given Trump’s unpopularity in the Golden State, he added, the party needs to “play a delicate dance with the national Republicans.”
Staff writer Casey Tolan contributed reporting.
