If electric cars are ever to become popular enough to replace gas-burning vehicles, far more efficient and inexpensive batteries will have to be produced.
The good news is that progress is being made to reduce the cost of batteries and increase the driving range of electric cars — and the Bay Area is a major player.
Palo Alto-based Tesla Motors will build its Model S at its Fremont factory. Meanwhile, battery research and development is taking place at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and a couple dozen battery startups have emerged in the Bay Area.
The primary goal in developing batteries for cars is to significantly improve energy density, or kilowatt hours per kilogram of battery.
The higher the energy density, the longer the range of an electric vehicle. Unfortunately, as energy density rises, so do costs. Tesla’s Model S, for example, is expected to have a range of 300 miles, but the cost of the car is projected to be $77,400, far out of range for most buyers.
There are less-expensive electric cars, but their range is far less. Even the less-expensive electric vehicles cost considerably more than equivalent gas-powered autos and have only a fraction of the range. The Chevrolet Volt, for example, has a driving range of just 35 miles before its battery has to be recharged, yet costs $42,000. It does have a small gas engine that extends its range.
The Nissan Leaf, which is all-electric, has a range of 73 miles and costs $32,780. The Santa Monica-based Coda is coming to California later this year. It has a range of 90 to 120 miles, but costs $44,900.
Today’s electric cars may be useful for short-range commuters, but are still not economically competitive even with higher gas prices. The longer-range cars like Tesla’s Model S are far too expensive to gain wide popularity.
There is another challenge to the growth of the electric car industry and that is providing the electricity needed to recharge the batteries. While they can be recharged at a motorists’ home, there also needs to be an extensive network of recharging stations.
Just as significant, more electricity will have to be made available to meet the demand of electric cars, even if most of the battery recharging is done in off-peak hours.
It would make little sense to produce the additional electricity from fossil fuel power plants. That would defeat one of the major benefits of electric cars — a reduction in greenhouse gases.
Nuclear, hydro, geothermal and solar power plants could satisfy the added demand. But the most important and difficult task is for electric-vehicle companies to improve battery capacity in a cost-effective manner.
Certainly everyone in the electric car business is acutely aware of the challenges. But there is considerable hope for the future.
The Department of Energy predicts that today’s typical electric car battery, which costs $33,333 will drop to $10,000 by 2015 and just $3,333 by 2030.
It remains to be seen how accurate these forecasts will be, but if they are anywhere near correct, electric cars have a bright future and the Bay Area is positioned to be a major beneficiary.
