I m not saying that Google is going to go away, just as Microsoft didn t go away. It s just that Google will miss out on what s next.
— Ben Thompson, tech analyst. The New York Times Farhad Manjoo explores the thinking behind Thompson s assertion that Google has peaked: It s now competing for ad revenue with the likes of Facebook, which has content that keep people engaged for long periods of time. But Google s offerings are different.
Google creates transactional services, Thompson said. You go to Google to search, or for maps, or with something else in mind. And those are the types of ads they have. But brand advertising isn t about that kind of destination. It s about an experience.
Of brand advertising, the NYT writes: These are the ads you see on television and print magazines. They work on your emotions in the belief that, in time, your dollars will follow.
That doesn t seem to bode well for Google. The competition isn t just coming from Facebook; other engage-able services include Snapchat and Pinterest.
But wait, Google has cash galore! It s working on so much more than search and ads. There are driverless cars and balloons that deliver the Internet, and…
That goes back to Thompson s point, according to the NYT:
The far-out projects remind Mr. Thompson of Microsoft, which has also invested heavily in research and development, and has seen little return on its investments.
To me the Microsoft comparison can t be more clear, he said. This is the price of being so successful — what you re seeing is that when a company becomes dominant, its dominance precludes it from dominating the next thing. It s almost like a natural law of business.
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