Let me start by saying that I have a ton of respect for New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. With that out of the way, let me also say that this weekend that Friedman floated one of the worst ideas I’ve heard in a long time.
I’m talking about his column, posted on Saturday, called “Start Up the Risk-Takers.”
Friedman’s critique of the automotive industry is right on target, as usual:
Reading the news that General Motors and Chrysler are now lining up for another $20 billion or so in government aid — on top of the billions they’ve already received or requested — leaves me with the sick feeling that we are subsidizing the losers and for only one reason: because they claim that their funerals would cost more than keeping them on life support.
Where he goes off the rails is the solution. First, I don’t agree the answer is just to shove them into bankruptcy and tear up the labor agreements. But that’s another discussion.
His truly awful idea comes from where he’d like the U.S. government to steer the bailout money: venture capital firms. Friedman says:
You want to spend $20 billion of taxpayer money creating jobs? Fine. Call up the top 20 venture capital firms in America, which are short of cash today because their partners — university endowments and pension funds — are tapped out, and make them this offer: The U.S. Treasury will give you each up to $1 billion to fund the best venture capital ideas that have come your way. If they go bust, we all lose. If any of them turns out to be the next Microsoft or Intel, taxpayers will give you 20 percent of the investors’ upside and keep 80 percent for themselves.
Now, it’s hard for me to gauge whether he’s serious, or he’s just trying to make a provocative point that we should be investing more in innovation and start-ups. I could get on board, if that were the case. But pumping money into venture firms? Puh-leeze.
First off, who told Friedman that venture firms were hurting for cash? In fact, they’re sitting on piles of money they’ve raised in recent years. A lot of that money did come from foundations and endowments, which have taken a whack.
But venture firms aren’t really out raising much money at the moment. That may be a problem two or three years down the road. But not right now.
The bigger immediate problem is the venture capital business model. The money raised assumes that the funds will invest the cash and achieve certain returns based on liquidity events. That is, when portfolio companies are sold or pull off an initial public offering of stock.
The problem is that the IPO market never really came back after the dot-com bust. And now it’s locked down tight. Since that’s closed, start-ups lose significant leverage when they negotiate to be acquired by someone else. There will certainly be plenty of acquisitions in the months ahead, but it’s a buyer’s market.
So it’s not certain that even when the economy rebounds that venture firms will be able to achieve the returns that justify the types of capital they’ve been raising. And that makes them a bad bet for U.S. taxpayers funds.
What should the government do? Stick to what it does best. Ramp up funding for basic research. If we want better returns on these investments, we should require a royalty payment on technologies that are commercialized.
And when cutting edge products emerge, the government can create a market by becoming an aggressive customer. The government did this way back when by being an early customer for semiconductors. And that’s worked out pretty well for Silicon Valley.
6 comments
Jim B
Good discussion, but after reading your thoughts, I agree more with what Friedman proposed. Why should the lack of significant returns be a barrier to using taxpayer money for venture capital? They know how to spend it more productively than Uncle Sam does, and if over time the taxpayer gets something back for our stake in it, that will be a bonus. The primary reason for this suggestion would be to spur innovation, not invest money to generate a profit. And if the VC firms are having trouble with their business model, perhaps some tweaking is inevitable, but that may be all the more reason to promote a public-private partnership.
Feb 23, 2009
Prakash Narayan
I agree with you on your assessment of the auto industry. It is, indeed,
another discussion.
I do not agree with the rest of your thesis. Here is why:
I can tell you from first-hand experience that your statement of venture
firms, “sitting on piles of money they’ve raised in recent years” is not true.
Having spoken to a few of them myself, they are echoing the sentiment
that the funds are drying up and that they are not looking to make any
investments at this point. With the additional infusion of funds, they are
likely to loosen those purse strings. You will agree that only startups can
bring the energy back into this market – creating new jobs and more
opportunities. Score a point for Friedman here.
Also, you seem to think that IPO Is the only way to realize a return on the
investment. IPO is just one of the exit strategies.
With Friedman’s plan, more startups get funded. This is the fertilizer that
the economy needs to get us out of the morass that we are in right now.
Feb 24, 2009
Ari
Freedman is a bozo. who thinks he has the answer to everything.
he has a verry arrogant manner.
The truth is other countries do fund new startups. Israel is doing quite well in that area.
Government should fund some promissing startups, but the problem is by the time it gets through Congress the funds would be loaded with so much pork and requirements it’s not worth it.
As for private equity; can’t trust them.
Feb 25, 2009
michaelburns
The answer lies not with government, thank you. We need to make it easier for entrepreneurs to bring their innovations to market. And no more mark-to-market; gut Sarbanes-Oxley.
Feb 25, 2009
Morton
Friedman may have made this suggestion as a proxy for a return to risk taking that is needed to drive innovation. Everyone is in a risk adverse mood and this is not a healthy situation. But in general I agree that the argument of using the money that would go to Detroit to capitalize VCs dubious at best. It would have to be coupled with a deregulation of the car building industry and a structured bankruptsy fr Detroit so that startups could pick up the pieces and innovate in the transportation field. That would be like a lot of little Teslas, which hasn’t been all that successful (yet).
Cheers, Morton
Feb 25, 2009
Carl Brown
The bigger problem with VC’s is they are not value or job creation machines — they are wealth creation. The thought and thinking behind VC’s is not a good business model but a flip-able company.
Just as the stock market does — the economy is re-setting to a baseline. Soon, people will realize they basic necessities (Food, Shelter, Clothing, Amazon) and we will rebase growth on those needs. Spending on infrastructure and advanced energy is the best use for our money because it creates jobs today and plans for the future.
As for GM — the question is — is it a loan or a handout? If GM ‘can’ be fixed for $20B, great. Surely, it doesn’t seem feasible that it can — given our current vantage point at the bottom of a hole. In fact, if our economy doesn’t correct soon enough, even Toyota will be facing this question.
Feb 26, 2009